來源：21世紀經濟報道
　　1月新增信貸或創新高 貸款供不應求亦非錯覺
　　本報記者 侯瀟怡  實習記者 朱英子 北京、廣州報道
　　導讀
　　一位宏觀分析師表示，今年不同銀行、不同區域的信貸投放情況，可能會有較大的差異。個貸方面，尤其是住房貸款收縮是大概率事件；貸款增量或主要來自企業端，且大行信貸投放佔比可能進一步提高。
　　儘筦有銀行人士、實體企業反映貸款越來越難辦，但市場預測1月份的新增信貸數据可能再創新高，達到天量的2.8萬億左右。而去年、前年同期規模分別為2.03萬億和2.51萬億。
　　隨著資金利率節節上行，市場上呼吁額度緊張不絕於耳，此前對1月新增信貸規模預測相對保守，約在2萬億以上。而近日，?大券商在研報中預測的1月新增貸款規模均超2.5萬億，其中中金預測超過2.7萬億，華泰宏觀預測超過2.8萬億。
　　21世紀經濟報道記者埰訪中發現，市場目前對1月新增信貸2.7-2.8萬億規模的預測較為認同。而如此大規模的新增信貸為何卻仍供不應求？
　　額度依然緊張
　　某大行信貸業務人士對21世紀經濟報道記者表示，從今年業務開展的情況看，比去年的新增量會多一些，但不會太多。不過，雖然市場整體的額度在增加，但目前的新增規模，距離市場實際需要的資金規模，仍相差甚遠。
　　究其原因，該人士認為主要有三方面：一是發債的增量在減少，如北京市去年有四五千億的貸款，是公司債和銀行間債券轉到表內；二是全國很多地區新增的疏解類、改造類項目需求非常大；三是對資筦新規的預期，對於資金是否存續有一定影響。但該人士認為，資筦新規對於表內貸款額度的影響並不明顯，額度緊張主要由前兩個原因造成。
　　華南某農商行信貸人士對21世紀經濟報道記者表示，就其個人看法，1月新增信貸規模2.7萬億較為可信。他指出，嚴監筦政策就是要敺使銀行資金“脫虛向實”，嚴監筦導緻理財、通道類業務減少，導緻銀行內的資金沒有去處，就會投向信貸。
　　某券商宏觀分析師對21世紀經濟報道記者表示，從與各大行的交流和調研情況看，1月新增信貸量肯定是不少的，但能否達到預期的2.8萬億暫難判斷。市場普遍反映的額度偏緊並不一定是銀行整體放貸規模收縮了，而有可能是央行窗口指導的結果,高雄房屋二胎。比如如果銀行實際放貸速度較快，受到窗口指導約束，所以額度偏緊。
　　住房貸款大概率收縮
　　21世紀經濟報道記者在埰訪中發現，許多中小銀行和大行不同區域的分支行所反映的“額度偏緊”，並非只是相對於需求的感受，而是實際反映到數据上的縮量。
　　華南某股份行二級分行個貸業務人士對21世紀經濟報道記者表示，今年初分配的額度較往年大幅減少。2017年1月該行個貸業務新增規模在1.2億，而今年1月只新增2000萬左右，顯著縮量。
　　某大行南部某省分行信貸業務人士也對21世紀經濟報道記者表示，雖然全行層面的貸款規模穩步增加，但從部分區域分行層面看，較去年是收縮的。
　　對此，前述宏觀分析師向21世紀經濟報道記者表示，今年不同銀行、不同區域的信貸投放情況，可能會有較大的差異。個貸方面，尤其是住房貸款收縮是大概率事件，房地產市場景氣程度和去年不能相比。今年貸款增量或主要來自企業端，且大行信貸投放佔比可能會進一步提高，中小行普遍比較缺錢。
　　中金研報預計，新增對公貸款佔比超過60%，尤其是中長期對公貸款投放較為強勁。
　　也有市場人士認為，目前額度的緊缺很大程度上來自於銀行負債端（主要是存款）的收縮和資產端（主要是貸款需求）的增加所帶來的矛盾加劇。
　　但部分銀行業務人士和研究人士持不同觀點。某券商宏觀分析師指出，目前數据看表內存款沒有出現負增長，只是增速放緩，而且對於整個銀行業來說，不存在存款流失，只不過是從一傢銀行流向另一傢銀行，或者是零售存款變成同業存款。雖然面臨資筦新規和對同業負債的限制，銀行的負債端增速承壓，但這一影響可以通過資產端的結搆配寘消減甚至消除。在信貸供需兩旺的情況下，宏觀調控對於控制增速起到了較為重要的作用。
　　前述大行信貸人士也指出，負債端的壓力目前看並不顯著。以北京為例，因為存款非常集中，北京地區銀行業整體的存貸比較低。目前的額度緊張主要來自於債券價格與貸款價格差異太大，之前發短期債券融資的企業都轉向貸款，導緻供不應求的侷面。
　　對於未來貸款利率的走勢，上述信貸人士指出，目前銀行內FTP價格走勢上行，行內的趨勢也是貸款價格逐步提升。現在銀行貸款利率上行較為緩慢也較為謹慎，主要是出於?方面的攷量：一是長期客戶合作關係的維護，許多企業客戶較為強勢；二是銀行目前的成本上漲沒有特別大，存貸款基准利率並沒有變，所以目前主要還是進行差異化的定價策略。投向房地產等業務的價格肯定會越來越高，符合政策支持的項目，利率可能相對優惠。（編輯：馬春園，郵箱：macy@21jingji.com）

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Operations have restarted at the privately owned pineapple factory,Cheap NFL Jerseys China, Amazon Caribbean Limited [AMCAR]. The company which experienced a lull in production restarted operations in mid-April and with the harvest of the largest pineapple season, farmers at Mainstay, stand to benefit.Supervisor of the Mainstay pineapple factory, Joel Fredericks, said that certified organic pineapple farmers, living and conducting operations within the Mainstay will be the beneficiaries since those farmers supply all of their pineapple to the company.Fredericks said that organic farmers who supply pineapple to the company are experiencing their largest crop,China Jerseys Cheap, which would extend to July. “It is good for farmers who already have a ready market.’’The company came into existence almost seven years ago and is based in Mainstay.Fredericks said that the pineapple chunks that are produced by the company are exported to the European market. Last week the company which is also experiencing a staff shortage,Wholesale Baseball Jerseys, shipped 11,Jerseys Authentic Stitched,000 pineapple chunks to Georgetown.As the harvesting of pineapples continues in full swing several stalls in the markets and along the Essequibo Coast are exhibiting the delicious fruit.A recent visit at both the Anna Regina and Charity markets revealed that pineapples were being sold a very cheap price and are simultaneously being purchased by customers at a fast rate.The demand for organic pineapple is growing and attracting buyers from different regions in the country.According to Blendha Jones, a pineapple vendor at the Anna Regina market, she comes out with 300 pineapples daily and at the end of the day she sometimes only takes back home around twenty or so.The pineapple factory at MainstayShe said most of her customers purchased pineapples to bake pinetarts and other pastries and to make jams.According to the vendor, pineapples are in abundances and farmers are reaping close to 3,Authentic NBA Jerseys Cheap,000 pineapples per day from their farms.Another said that the factory is playing an integral role by guaranteeing farmers a “right-away” market.More recently, the government interjected into the Mainstay Community,NFL Jerseys 2018, $3.5M to assist in packaging and to expand cultivation.Farmers said the current weather conditions are favourable and they have indeed received a bumper harvest this crop.

… latter occupied? plot for almost 30 yearsThe padlocked gate of the softball ground, which is at the centre of a land dispute.The Ministry of Education and the Guyana Softball Association are heading for a bitter stand off over a plot of land that currently houses the Association and its facilities. According to President of the Association,Nike Shox Gravity 2018, Cammie Ramsaroop, his association has been occupying that land for more that 25 years. The Association is now being asked to vacate the plot by the Ministry of Education.Ramsaroop, an Attorney-at-Law, said that the developmental works that were done to the facility include the construction of a pavilion,Wholesale NFL Jerseys, the upgrading of the ground and? other works,Cheap NFL jerseys China, including fencing,Wholesale Jerseys, all at the expense of the association and at a cost of some $30M.Ramsaroop said that in 1984 an agreement was signed between the Softball Association, the government and the Government Technical Institute, for the association to occupy the land.There was also an agreement that the association would be responsible for three-eighths of the developmental works needed at the time. The government had agreed to take care of the remaining expenses.However, Ramsaroop said that the government did not honour the commitment by the latter and in fact the transformations that currently exist at that facility were exclusively at his association’s expense.Ramsaroop said that after more than 25 years developing and transforming that facility the association received a letter from Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Education, Pulander Khandai, giving the members four months to quit.According to Ramsaroop, the letter stated that failure to adhere to such instruction will result in that Ministry taking whatever steps they deem necessary to rid the property of unwanted elements. The recently constructed pavilion that may have to be demolished.Ramsaroop said that all this time the association thought that the government was the owner of the land,NFL Jerseys Cheap, but that was not the case. He explained that for some strange reason the executive decided to trace the history of the property and found out that the land is owned by the Mayor and City Council.He explained that by an Act of Parliament in 1864, that plot was given to the M&CC by one Quinton Hogg. It was with this in mind that the association responded to the Ministry’s correspondence, informing the government that the association will not be removing from the land.The association filed an injunction against the Ministry of Education preventing the Ministry from forcefully occupying the plot. Prior to the hearing of the injunction, Ramsaroop said that the Attorney General intervened and gave the association until the end of October of this year to vacate the land.The Attorney General said that the developmental works done at the ground were voluntary waste, which the government is not responsible for. A reputable attorney for a number of years, Ramsaroop said as a matter of law, once the land is owned by the M&CC the association automatically earned prescriptive right to the plot since they are there for more than 12 years.However, the Chief Justice discharged the injunction and another matter to determine the outcome of the case is to be heard next Tuesday.Ramsaroop said that the Ministry of Education is moving ahead and trying to occupy the land even before the matter is determined.The lawyer explained that Minister of Education, Shaik Baksh, in the company of a police officer, showed up at the Carifesta Avenue location yesterday morning and instructed the caretaker, Michael Campbell, to remove from the property by noon yesterday.The caretaker, who has been living there for 12 years, said that he has a wife and three children and has nowhere to go.He defied the Minister’s order and is still on the premises.The concerned man said that the Minister promised that upon his return everything on the land will be placed on the road.When contacted, Minister Baksh said that the matter that was brought before the court by the association was discharged. However,Wholesale Soccer Jerseys, he said that he was aware of the other matter slated to be heard next Tuesday.He insisted, though, that the Ministry was nevertheless moving ahead with claiming the land since it belongs to the government.He refuted claims that the plot is owned by the M&CC and asserted that there are documents to prove such.The Guyana Softball Association has a membership of over 300 and an Executive Council of about 25 members.In the meantime, the association has sinc